2012 Offseason Preview- Catcher

After posting one of the best records, if not the best record, throughout the summer months, the much-hyped 2011 Boston Red Sox suffered one of the worst collapses I as a fan have ever witnessed. Formerly Cy Young caliber pitchers became ineffective, everyone besides Marco Scutaro forgot how to hit, and Terry Francona apparently lost all sense of respect and control of the clubhouse. In the weeks since, we’ve seen Francona resign, Theo Epstein accept a job as the Cubs’ President of Baseball Operations, and Ben Cherington be promoted to General Manager, this time without Jed Hoyer (who left the Padres to accept the Cubs’ GM job under Epstein). But what does this all mean for the Red Sox offseason plans? Let’s have a look, position by position, at the Red Sox options this year, starting with the person will be manning the dish for the Sox next year: the catcher.

Under Contract

Jarrod Saltalamacchia (Arbitration Eligible)-  The Red Sox starting catcher from 2011 hit .235/.288/.450 while belting 16 home runs and playing league average defense behind the plate, good for a WAR of 1.3, the highest of his career. However, these numbers equate to little more than a talented backup, and Ben Cherington might be inclined to find and upgrade. If Saltalamacchia could increase his average and OBP up to around the .250/.320 range while maintaining his power, he would be a bargain at whatever his arbitration salary will be (MLBTradeRumors.com estimates $1.6 million). However, Saltalamacchia’s entire career has been a question of “if only he could…” so what the Red Sox will do is still up in the air. Given the lack of quality catching depth around the league right now, I would not be surprised, or dismayed, if Salty starts for the Red Sox on Opening Day 2012.

Ryan Lavarnway (League Minimum)- Lavarnway spent 2011 splitting time between Portland, Pawtucket, and Boston. In 220 at-bats in Pawtucket, Lavarnway hit .295/.390/.612 with 18 home runs, before being called up to Boston, where in limited playing time (39 at-bats) put up very Saltalamacchia-esque numbers; .231/.302/.436 with a couple home runs. Few doubt that, offensively at least, Lavarnway would be a suitable backup at the major league level, perhaps even an improvement of Salty. However, his defense, despite recent improvements, has always been spotty, and his range behind the plate is limited. Whether or not Lavarnway gets a lot of at-bats with Boston in 2012 could depend on whether or not David Ortiz returns to the club, as he might be better suited as a DH/C combination.

Luis Exposito (Minor League Contract)- Pawtucket’s primary catcher was overtaken by Lavarnway on the depth charts, this past year, but still has the potential to be a solid major leaguer. Known more for his skills behind the plate than offensive prowess, Exposito hit .242/.298/.367 at AAA Pawtucket last year, numbers he’ll need to improve on if he wants to be in the mix for the Red Sox backup job. Depending on where Lavarnway ends up, Exposito should either start the season as Pawtucket’s starting catcher, or the backup.

Free Agents

Jason Varitek (Type B, 2011 Salary: $2,000,000)- The Red Sox’s current captain has perhaps played his last game as a member of the Red Sox, but it would not be inconceivable for Ben Cherington to bring back the veteran as Saltalamacchia’s backup for a second straight year. Despite his increasing age, Varitek remains somewhat of a threat behind the plate, he hit .221/.300/.423 in 2011 with 11 home runs, and is still one of the best game-callers around, even if his ability to throw out would-be base stealers has decreased in past years. Given the Red Sox’s apparent need for clubhouse leadership, Varitek might be a good option on a one-year deal. However, Varitek was the captain of the most dysfunctional clubhouse in baseball last year, and the Red Sox might look elsewhere.

Kelly Shoppach (2011 Salary: $3,000,000)- the Tampa Bay Rays hold a $3.2 million club option on the former Red Sox minor leaguer (who was traded to Cleveland as part of the Coco Crisp trade), and could be amenable to bringing him back. The Rays, for their part, are almost guaranteed to decline the option, as Shoppach has been mostly a disappointment in his two years with the club, hitting .176/.268/.339 last year, although he did have 11 home runs in 221 at-bats. The Red Sox could buy low and take a chance on the 31-year-old, hoping he regains the form that he showed in 2008, when he hit 22 home runs as the Indians starting catcher.

Ryan Doumit (Type B, 2011 Salary: $5,200,000)- If the Red Sox want to make more of an investment at the catcher position, they could go with the former Pirates backstop, who hit .303/.353/.477 for the Bucs this past season. They would not have to surrender a draft pick to sign Doumit (though the Pirates would receive a supplemental pick as compensation), however, the Red Sox seem to be content with Saltalamacchia as the starting catcher, and while Doumit may provide better offensive output now, relegating Salty to a backup role at this stage in his career will certainly hinder his development as an MLB starter.

Amateur Draft Musings

Today is the second day of the 2011 MLB Amateur (Rule IV) Draft, and, with all the pomp and circumstance surrounding the early rounds of the draft, I found myself wondering if they really mattered that much more than the later rounds. After all, scouting is not an exact science, and you’d have to think an early pick would have just as much chance as flaming out as a lower pick. So I decided to take a look at the makeup of the current Red Sox, to see when their players were drafted.

Without much surprise, I discovered that the majority of the roster is made up of early picks. In fact, of the 33 players who have played for the Red Sox this season (only 25 of which were drafted), 18 of them were drafted in the fifth round of higher. That includes an impressive 10 former first round picks who have played for the Red Sox this season. The breakdown looks something like this:

First Round: Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, J.D. Drew, Jason Varitek, Jacoby Ellsbury, Daniel Bard, Clay Buchholz, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Jed Lowrie, Michael Bowden

Second Round: John Lackey, Jon Lester, Dustin Pedroia, Carl Crawford

Fourth Round: Jonathan Papelbon, Rich Hill, Tommy Hottovy

Fifth Round: Bobby Jenks

Eighth Round: Kevin Youkilis, Tim Wakefield

15th Round: Drew Sutton

17th Round: Josh Reddick

18th Round: Mike Cameron

23rd Round: Matt Albers

34th Round: Dan Wheeler

Amateur Free Agents: Daisuke Matsuzaka, Marco Scutaro, Alfredo Aceves, Jose Iglesias, Franklin Morales, Felix Doubront, Dennys Reyes

It does seem, without a doubt, that earlier draft picks have a much better chance of making the Major Leagues than later picks, although the Red Sox show that some gems can be found in the later rounds. Mike Cameron, for example, has been an all-star outfielder over the course of his career, and he was taken in the 18th round. Josh Reddick has everyday potential, not too shabby for a 17th round pick. Kevin Youkilis and Tim Wakefield are both in the midst of extremely successful careers, both coming out of the 8th round. If you’re wondering about Ryan Kalish, the potential right fielder for the Red Sox next season, he was a 9th rounder.

So while it may be Matt Barnes and Blake Swihart that steal the headlines as far as Red Sox draftees go, don’t discount the chance that it might be one of the forgotten picks that eventually steals the spotlight.

What if?- Players Always Stayed With Their Original Team

One of the most exciting elements of baseball is the one that happens off the field– trades, free agency, etc. The winter is made more bearable for the die-hard baseball fan, who can follow the latest rumors, speculate about what big-name free agents will be wearing their team’s uniform next season, and cry when their team’s General Manager sends the organization’s top prospects to another team for an aging slugger.

But then I asked myself, what if there was no free agency? What if there were no trades? What if players were forced to stay with the team they were originally signed with until they retired? It would certainly make the draft more important, and the Red Sox have tended to draft well over the years. But what would the current team look like? This is what I came up with:

Catcher- Kelly Shoppach
First Base- Kevin Youkilis
Second Base- Dustin Pedroia
Third Base- Jed Lowrie
Shortstop- Hanley Ramirez
Left Field- David Murphy
Center Field- Jacoby Ellsbury
Right Field- Ryan Kalish
Designated Hitter- Lars Anderson

Starter- Jon Lester
Starter- Clay Buchholz
Starter- Justin Masterson
Starter- Anibal Sanchez
Starter- Daisuke Matsuzaka
Starter- Justin Duchscherer (injured- 60-Day DL)

Closer- Jonathan Papelbon
Setup- Daniel Bard
Setup- Rafael Betancourt
Reliever- Hideki Okajima
Reliever- Manny Delcarmen
Reliever- Felix Doubront
Long Reliever- Carl Pavano

Bench- Dusty Brown (C), Freddy Sanchez (INF), Brandon Moss (OF), Josh Reddick (OF)

The difference in the infield would come down to Adrian Gonzalez vs. Hanley Ramirez, and even I’m not sure which of those I would prefer. Gonzalez is more of an RBI machine, but Hanley is faster and plays a more valuable position, although his defense has been criticized, and a move to another position for him wouldn’t surprise me. However, this Red Sox would be much younger than the current incarnation, without the likes David Ortiz (who would be a Mariner), J.D. Drew (Cardinal), Jason Varitek (Mariner), Tim Wakefield (Pirate), and Mike Cameron (White Sox). Perhaps, in this alternate universe, Nomar could still be the team’s DH, but let’s assume that he retired as in real life.

However, a lot of players without everyday experience would be called upon, notably Anderson and Kalish. Freddy Sanchez does provide some veteran experience on the bench, although catcher position is noticeably weak behind Shoppach. Some minor league catchers would include Mark Wagner and Luis Exposito. Anthony Rizzo would also still be in the organization if Anderson floundered.

The pitching staff would be a lot less experienced, but not necessarily worse. John Lackey (Angel) and Josh Beckett (Marlin) would be replaced by Anibal Sanchez and Justin Masterson, who both have sub-3.00 ERA’s this season as starters. Justin Duchscherer and Carl Pavano would provide depth at the position, and Casey Kelly, Michael Bowden, Junichi Tazawa, and Felix Doubront would all be available to make spot starts if needed.

The front end of the bullpen does get noticeably weaker, with Okajima and Delcarmen holding key spots, but the back end is solidified with the addition of Betancourt. Craig Hansen, Jeff Suppan, and Chris Smith would also be bullpen options.

Overall, I would almost prefer this team to the real one… almost. However, the middle-of-the-lineup Pedroia-Gonzalez-Youkilis-Crawford is just too good to pass up, even if I have to live with John Lackey and his contract.

What to Think About the 4 (perhaps soon to be 5) Game Losing Streak

With the Red Sox currently in the middle of their worst losing streak to start a season since 1996 (and it could become 5 games very soon, as the Sox currently trail Cleveland in the 8th), it’s important to keep a little perspective. After this game, there will still be 157 games left to go.

Right now, just about everyone on the team, hitters and pitchers, is playing well below their projected numbers. Carl Crawford is not going to hit .222 on the season. Jacoby Ellsbury is not going to hit .150. Kevin Youkilis is not going to hit .133. What we’re experiencing right now is a coincidental slump of most of the lineup, as well as initial ineffectiveness from some starters (Ironically, Daisuke and Beckett, despite being on short leashes, looked a lot better than the rest of the staff).

What’s important to keep in mind is that this won’t last. To even out at where they’re expected to produce, the majority of hitters in this lineup are going to experience extended hot streaks to make up for this. When that happens, you’ll be looking at the team we all expected before the season started.

UMass Alumni Hall of Fame: Gary DiSarcina

As a student of the University of Massachusetts at Amherst, I have a certain degree of respect for other alumni of this University who have excelled out in the real world. So, I decided to start a series called the UMass Alumni Hall of Fame, where I’ll give a nod to some of the best of us. And the worst of us.The first is one of the more successful baseball players to come out of UMass system, and certainly one of UMass’ finest offensive shortstops.

A Malden, Massachusetts native, and raised in Billerica, Gary DiSarcina attended UMass from 1986-1988. He finished his UMass career with a .336 batting average, 11 home runs, 74 RBI, and 29 stolen bases. His best campaign came in 1988, his junior season, where he led the team to a 36-16  record, shattering the team’s single season win record, earning all Atlantic-10 and all-New England honors along the way. He led the team with a .366 batting average and 36 RBI.

DiSarcina playing for UMass

This success at the college level parlayed to being drafted by the California Angels in the sixth round of the 1988 amateur draft, and earning their starting shortstop job in 1992. In 1995, DiSarcina was named to the American League All-Star Team, hitting .307 with 5 home runs and 41 RBI, committing only six errors over the course of the season, and in 1998 his was named the Angels’ MVP.

Over the course of his major league career, DiSarcina hit .258 with 444 runs scored, 186 doubles, 28 home runs, 355 RBI, 47 stolen bases, and a career fielding percentage of .974. He retired following the 2002 season, and worked for awhile as an analyst for NESN. He then managed the Lowell Spinners for three seasons, from 2007-2009.

DiSarcina currently works as an assistant to Los Angeles Angels General Manager Tony Reagins, a position he has held since November 2010. He has more major league hits and at-bats than any other UMass alumni, and he is the first member of my UMass Alumni Hall of Fame.