In an offseason that has seen some mediocre players get horrendously overpaid (I’m talking to you Burnett and Sabathia), and some good players go unsigned (Sheets and, grudgingly, Ramirez) the Red Sox have actually managed to piece together a moderately good offseason without breaking the bank or mortgaging the farm system.
I’ve never been a fan of signing long-term deals that will keep a player with the team through their mid-thirties- there’s too much risk involved to justify the rewards. A player in their late 20’s rarely maintains that productions through their late 30’s, or sometimes even through their early 30’s (see Bartolo Colon, Brad Penny, Barry Zito, even guys like Mark Prior.) All of those guys were the most dominant pitchers in their respective leagues as recently as 2004. Look at them now. Colon and Penny are trying to regain their old form with new teams, Zito is loving the huge contract San Francisco gave him, of which he has earned not a penny, and little hope remains for Prior. The kicker is, besides Colon, none of the aforementioned pitchers are that old. In fact Colon is, what, 37? Especially with pitchers, there are way to many variables to make a long term contract worth the risk the team is taking. Zito’s contract is the best example, but in a few years we could be looking back at the Sabathia and Burnett (and perhaps Santana) signings in the same light.
On the other hand, buying low on pitchers can often reap great rewards. The Red Sox tried this strategy in 2005 with Wade Miller and last year with Colon. Colon actually put up some quality numbers before he injured himself swinging the bat (I’d blame interleague play, but that swing was so ugly, Colon deserved what he got). This year, the Sox have a few such reclamation projects. John Smoltz has the potential for the greatest reward, as a healthy John Smoltz is as dominant as anyone in the world. Right behind him is Brad Penny, who just two years ago was one of the premier starters in the National League. In the bullpen, the Sox signed Takashi Saito, formerly of the Dodgers, who is coming off surgery. He, if he stays healthy (and I see no reason why he can’t), could create a one-two punch in the bullpen at least as good as K-Rod/Putz, and maybe a little bit better. And all of these guys together cost less than AJ Burnett. AJ Burnett, who, the Yankees seem to forget, is at least as prone to injury as Penny and Smoltz.
However, the Red Sox passed on the ultimate reclamation project this winter. In fact, every team has up to this point. Ben Sheets has the potential to be the ace of any staff, and, despite injury, managed put put up an ERA right around 3.00 last year. The only problem with Sheets is that any team that signs him will lose a 1st round draft pick, a high price to pay if he does get hurt. I wouldn’t have been surprised to see the Red Sox go after Sheets after the Yankees picked up Burnett and Sabathia, but after signing both Penny and Smoltz, their adding another arm to the already crowded rotation seems unlikely, even if Buchholz or Bowden is dealt for a catcher.
Speaking of catcher, right now the Red Sox have got Josh Bard as the top catcher in the organization, not an enviable place to be. Jason Varitek has until Friday or Saturday (no one seems to know exactly which) to accept his choice of either a one year $5 million deal or a two year deal for the same $, with the second year being a mutual option or move on to another team. If Varitek (or should I say Boras) decides not to accept either of these offers, the Red Sox will likely be forced to trade for one of either Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Taylor Teagarden, or Miguel Montero. Now, none of these catchers is proven in the majors leagues. Personally, my choice would be Salty. He could develop plus power, and is already more of an offensive threat than Varitek, Teagarden, or Montero. He isn’t great behind the plate yet, but working with the Red Sox pitching staff would help him. Actually, my ideal situation would be to have Salty and Varitek platoon, with Tek teaching Salty everything he knows along the way. Where that would leave Bard and George Kottaras, I don’t know. Not to mention that Clay Buchholz is an awfully high price to pay for Salty. Maybe if the Rangers would be willing to accept Bowden + a minor prospect, perhaps an Argenis Diaz, a deal could get done.
Once the catcher problem is solved, the Red Sox will again be right in the hunt for the playoffs, although the AL East looks to be tougher than ever with the new and improved Yankees and the defending American League Champion Rays right there with them. This offseason could really go either way, depending on how guys like Smoltz, Penny, Saito, and Baldelli perform. Let’s not forget about new Japansese import Junichi Tazawa, who will be trying to prove his stuff in Portland before making the big show. All in all, this could be one of the best Red Sox teams in years, or just a repeat of the 2005 squad. We can only wait and see.
