Under Contract

Jarrod Saltalamacchia (Arbitration Eligible)-  The Red Sox starting catcher from 2011 hit .235/.288/.450 while belting 16 home runs and playing league average defense behind the plate, good for a WAR of 1.3, the highest of his career. However, these numbers equate to little more than a talented backup, and Ben Cherington might be inclined to find and upgrade. If Saltalamacchia could increase his average and OBP up to around the .250/.320 range while maintaining his power, he would be a bargain at whatever his arbitration salary will be (MLBTradeRumors.com estimates $1.6 million). However, Saltalamacchia’s entire career has been a question of “if only he could…” so what the Red Sox will do is still up in the air. Given the lack of quality catching depth around the league right now, I would not be surprised, or dismayed, if Salty starts for the Red Sox on Opening Day 2012.

Ryan Lavarnway (League Minimum)- Lavarnway spent 2011 splitting time between Portland, Pawtucket, and Boston. In 220 at-bats in Pawtucket, Lavarnway hit .295/.390/.612 with 18 home runs, before being called up to Boston, where in limited playing time (39 at-bats) put up very Saltalamacchia-esque numbers; .231/.302/.436 with a couple home runs. Few doubt that, offensively at least, Lavarnway would be a suitable backup at the major league level, perhaps even an improvement of Salty. However, his defense, despite recent improvements, has always been spotty, and his range behind the plate is limited. Whether or not Lavarnway gets a lot of at-bats with Boston in 2012 could depend on whether or not David Ortiz returns to the club, as he might be better suited as a DH/C combination.

Luis Exposito (Minor League Contract)- Pawtucket’s primary catcher was overtaken by Lavarnway on the depth charts, this past year, but still has the potential to be a solid major leaguer. Known more for his skills behind the plate than offensive prowess, Exposito hit .242/.298/.367 at AAA Pawtucket last year, numbers he’ll need to improve on if he wants to be in the mix for the Red Sox backup job. Depending on where Lavarnway ends up, Exposito should either start the season as Pawtucket’s starting catcher, or the backup.

Free Agents

Jason Varitek (Type B, 2011 Salary: $2,000,000)- The Red Sox’s current captain has perhaps played his last game as a member of the Red Sox, but it would not be inconceivable for Ben Cherington to bring back the veteran as Saltalamacchia’s backup for a second straight year. Despite his increasing age, Varitek remains somewhat of a threat behind the plate, he hit .221/.300/.423 in 2011 with 11 home runs, and is still one of the best game-callers around, even if his ability to throw out would-be base stealers has decreased in past years. Given the Red Sox’s apparent need for clubhouse leadership, Varitek might be a good option on a one-year deal. However, Varitek was the captain of the most dysfunctional clubhouse in baseball last year, and the Red Sox might look elsewhere.

Kelly Shoppach (2011 Salary: $3,000,000)- the Tampa Bay Rays hold a $3.2 million club option on the former Red Sox minor leaguer (who was traded to Cleveland as part of the Coco Crisp trade), and could be amenable to bringing him back. The Rays, for their part, are almost guaranteed to decline the option, as Shoppach has been mostly a disappointment in his two years with the club, hitting .176/.268/.339 last year, although he did have 11 home runs in 221 at-bats. The Red Sox could buy low and take a chance on the 31-year-old, hoping he regains the form that he showed in 2008, when he hit 22 home runs as the Indians starting catcher.

Ryan Doumit (Type B, 2011 Salary: $5,200,000)- If the Red Sox want to make more of an investment at the catcher position, they could go with the former Pirates backstop, who hit .303/.353/.477 for the Bucs this past season. They would not have to surrender a draft pick to sign Doumit (though the Pirates would receive a supplemental pick as compensation), however, the Red Sox seem to be content with Saltalamacchia as the starting catcher, and while Doumit may provide better offensive output now, relegating Salty to a backup role at this stage in his career will certainly hinder his development as an MLB starter.

Without much surprise, I discovered that the majority of the roster is made up of early picks. In fact, of the 33 players who have played for the Red Sox this season (only 25 of which were drafted), 18 of them were drafted in the fifth round of higher. That includes an impressive 10 former first round picks who have played for the Red Sox this season. The breakdown looks something like this:

First Round: Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, J.D. Drew, Jason Varitek, Jacoby Ellsbury, Daniel Bard, Clay Buchholz, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Jed Lowrie, Michael Bowden

Second Round: John Lackey, Jon Lester, Dustin Pedroia, Carl Crawford

Fourth Round: Jonathan Papelbon, Rich Hill, Tommy Hottovy

Fifth Round: Bobby Jenks

Eighth Round: Kevin Youkilis, Tim Wakefield

15th Round: Drew Sutton

17th Round: Josh Reddick

18th Round: Mike Cameron

23rd Round: Matt Albers

34th Round: Dan Wheeler

Amateur Free Agents: Daisuke Matsuzaka, Marco Scutaro, Alfredo Aceves, Jose Iglesias, Franklin Morales, Felix Doubront, Dennys Reyes

It does seem, without a doubt, that earlier draft picks have a much better chance of making the Major Leagues than later picks, although the Red Sox show that some gems can be found in the later rounds. Mike Cameron, for example, has been an all-star outfielder over the course of his career, and he was taken in the 18th round. Josh Reddick has everyday potential, not too shabby for a 17th round pick. Kevin Youkilis and Tim Wakefield are both in the midst of extremely successful careers, both coming out of the 8th round. If you’re wondering about Ryan Kalish, the potential right fielder for the Red Sox next season, he was a 9th rounder.

So while it may be Matt Barnes and Blake Swihart that steal the headlines as far as Red Sox draftees go, don’t discount the chance that it might be one of the forgotten picks that eventually steals the spotlight.

But then I asked myself, what if there was no free agency? What if there were no trades? What if players were forced to stay with the team they were originally signed with until they retired? It would certainly make the draft more important, and the Red Sox have tended to draft well over the years. But what would the current team look like? This is what I came up with:

Catcher- Kelly Shoppach
First Base- Kevin Youkilis
Second Base- Dustin Pedroia
Third Base- Jed Lowrie
Shortstop- Hanley Ramirez
Left Field- David Murphy
Center Field- Jacoby Ellsbury
Right Field- Ryan Kalish
Designated Hitter- Lars Anderson

Starter- Jon Lester
Starter- Clay Buchholz
Starter- Justin Masterson
Starter- Anibal Sanchez
Starter- Daisuke Matsuzaka
Starter- Justin Duchscherer (injured- 60-Day DL)

Closer- Jonathan Papelbon
Setup- Daniel Bard
Setup- Rafael Betancourt
Reliever- Hideki Okajima
Reliever- Manny Delcarmen
Reliever- Felix Doubront
Long Reliever- Carl Pavano

Bench- Dusty Brown (C), Freddy Sanchez (INF), Brandon Moss (OF), Josh Reddick (OF)

The difference in the infield would come down to Adrian Gonzalez vs. Hanley Ramirez, and even I’m not sure which of those I would prefer. Gonzalez is more of an RBI machine, but Hanley is faster and plays a more valuable position, although his defense has been criticized, and a move to another position for him wouldn’t surprise me. However, this Red Sox would be much younger than the current incarnation, without the likes David Ortiz (who would be a Mariner), J.D. Drew (Cardinal), Jason Varitek (Mariner), Tim Wakefield (Pirate), and Mike Cameron (White Sox). Perhaps, in this alternate universe, Nomar could still be the team’s DH, but let’s assume that he retired as in real life.

However, a lot of players without everyday experience would be called upon, notably Anderson and Kalish. Freddy Sanchez does provide some veteran experience on the bench, although catcher position is noticeably weak behind Shoppach. Some minor league catchers would include Mark Wagner and Luis Exposito. Anthony Rizzo would also still be in the organization if Anderson floundered.

The pitching staff would be a lot less experienced, but not necessarily worse. John Lackey (Angel) and Josh Beckett (Marlin) would be replaced by Anibal Sanchez and Justin Masterson, who both have sub-3.00 ERA’s this season as starters. Justin Duchscherer and Carl Pavano would provide depth at the position, and Casey Kelly, Michael Bowden, Junichi Tazawa, and Felix Doubront would all be available to make spot starts if needed.

The front end of the bullpen does get noticeably weaker, with Okajima and Delcarmen holding key spots, but the back end is solidified with the addition of Betancourt. Craig Hansen, Jeff Suppan, and Chris Smith would also be bullpen options.

Overall, I would almost prefer this team to the real one… almost. However, the middle-of-the-lineup Pedroia-Gonzalez-Youkilis-Crawford is just too good to pass up, even if I have to live with John Lackey and his contract.

Right now, just about everyone on the team, hitters and pitchers, is playing well below their projected numbers. Carl Crawford is not going to hit .222 on the season. Jacoby Ellsbury is not going to hit .150. Kevin Youkilis is not going to hit .133. What we’re experiencing right now is a coincidental slump of most of the lineup, as well as initial ineffectiveness from some starters (Ironically, Daisuke and Beckett, despite being on short leashes, looked a lot better than the rest of the staff).

What’s important to keep in mind is that this won’t last. To even out at where they’re expected to produce, the majority of hitters in this lineup are going to experience extended hot streaks to make up for this. When that happens, you’ll be looking at the team we all expected before the season started.

A Malden, Massachusetts native, and raised in Billerica, Gary DiSarcina attended UMass from 1986-1988. He finished his UMass career with a .336 batting average, 11 home runs, 74 RBI, and 29 stolen bases. His best campaign came in 1988, his junior season, where he led the team to a 36-16  record, shattering the team’s single season win record, earning all Atlantic-10 and all-New England honors along the way. He led the team with a .366 batting average and 36 RBI.

DiSarcina playing for UMass

This success at the college level parlayed to being drafted by the California Angels in the sixth round of the 1988 amateur draft, and earning their starting shortstop job in 1992. In 1995, DiSarcina was named to the American League All-Star Team, hitting .307 with 5 home runs and 41 RBI, committing only six errors over the course of the season, and in 1998 his was named the Angels’ MVP.

Over the course of his major league career, DiSarcina hit .258 with 444 runs scored, 186 doubles, 28 home runs, 355 RBI, 47 stolen bases, and a career fielding percentage of .974. He retired following the 2002 season, and worked for awhile as an analyst for NESN. He then managed the Lowell Spinners for three seasons, from 2007-2009.

DiSarcina currently works as an assistant to Los Angeles Angels General Manager Tony Reagins, a position he has held since November 2010. He has more major league hits and at-bats than any other UMass alumni, and he is the first member of my UMass Alumni Hall of Fame.

Salary Cap- I don’t believe there is a need for a salary cap in baseball, nor do I think there will be one, in this upcoming Collective Bargaining Agreement or any in the foreseeable future. After all, the Players Union and the large market clubs would never, ever support it. While it would work to reign back teams like the Red Sox, Yankees, and Cubs, among others, who have taken advantage of the lax salary restrictions that MLB imposes, it would do absolutely nothing to deal with teams like the Marlins and Pirates who are taking in millions and millions in Luxury Tax money every year and putting almost none of it towards the team. If you force them to spend money on their teams, rather than pocketing it, you would see a lot more competitive teams in baseball. The Tampa Bay Rays are not a large market team, but they have managed to best both the Yankees and Red Sox in recent years, because their ownership and front office is willing to spend on their team. If only their fans would go out to the ballpark. I would be surprised if a minimum league salary were put into effect, but I expect some sort of restrictions to be placed on owners not putting enough of their profits back into their teams. At the very least, there should be stricter regulations on how revenue sharing money is used.

Stronger Luxury Tax- This could be a compromise short of an actual salary cap. Perhaps a lower limit for the luxury tax (I’ve heard $150mm being thrown around) or a stricter tax for teams that exceed it. Again, this does nothing to solve the problem of the teams at the low end of the salary spectrum, but it’s a start.

Draft-Pick Compensation- The current draft pick compensation system is horribly broken, and allows teams (the Yankees last offseason come to mind) to sign a number of top free agents, with their lost draft picks becoming more and more insignificant the more Type-A players they sign. For example, if the Red Sox had signed Mark Teixeira, the Yankees had signed CC Sabathia, and the Angels had signed AJ Burnett, then the Angels, Brewers, and Blue Jays would have all received first round draft picks from the teams that signed those players. However, because the Yankees signed all three, the Angels received their first round pick, the Brewers got their second round pick, and the Blue Jays only got their third round pick. If the Yankees had deigned to sign another Type-A, they would have only had to surrender a 4th round pick. It’s a system that not only allows, but encourages, large market teams to sweep up as many of the top talents available. Fixing this system will do more to help small market teams then a salary cap, and I fully expect this to be heavily debated.

International Draft Picks- Another issue that could help even the competitive playing field is to make the Rule IV (Amateur) draft international. This has a lot of momentum and I would be very disappointed to see that it wasn’t passed in this upcoming CBA. The system as it works now allows players from foreign countries (usually the Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Cuba, etc.) to declare themselves as international free agents during the summer, beginning a period called the International Signing Period, where teams can bid on the players. It is very similar to free agency in that, obviously, teams with more money get better players. It is also a detriment to small market teams in that they are more likely to roll the dice and spend $5mm on a hotshot 18-year-old Venezuelan shortstop then on an aging slugger. However, there is a good chance that shortstop will flame out and never reach the majors, meaning that team, that doesn’t have a lot to spend in the first place,is just tossing it into a black hole. A large market team, on the other hand, can scoop up as many of these players as possible. If they pan out, great, if not, no great loss, it’s just money. An international draft, in addition to the final item on this list, will help solve this issue.

Hard Draft Pick Slotting- The current amateur draft system includes a slot system where MLB recommends signing bonuses for each slot in the draft. However, teams are under absolutely no obligation to follow those recommended bonuses. MLB needs a hard draft system. The Washington Nationals should not have to worry that their first overall picks (whether it’s Stephen Strasburg or Bryce Harper) will hold out for another year just to get a bigger bonus. There should be a set amount that a first round pick gets, and a set amount a second round pick gets, etc. If a high school player is drafted in the 23rd round and wants to go to college with the hope of getting drafted higher upon graduation, great. That’s fine. But under no circumstances should the team with the first overall pick not be able to get the player with the most available talent. Anthony Renaudo and Kendel Volz fell to the Red Sox this past draft because their signing demands were too high to justify the risk involved in drafting them. To the Red Sox, their bonuses were just another drop in the pond, but to a team like the Pirates or Royals, they would have been significant commitments. This system needs to be fixed, and I’m sure will be one of the top priorities.

Which brings us to the Chicago Cubs. Just like the Red Sox, they have their history representing the monkey on their backs. In this case it just happens to be a billy-goat. They haven’t won since 1908, making this the 103rd season since a World Series championship. It won’t be easy for them this year either, with the Cincinnati Reds as strong as ever, and the Brewers and Cardinals trying to win big before their star players (Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols respectively) depart at the end of the season.

So it makes sense that they’d go into this Spring with a chip on their shoulder. Lou Piniella is gone, but I’d expect the team to retain some of his anger, especially since head-case Carlos Zambrano is still around. They struggle out of the gate in Spring Training, but hey, it’s Spring Training, so it’s not like it matters right? Apparently wrong, since yesterday 3B Aramis Ramirez and SP Carlos Silva dissolved into a shouting match in the team’s dugout after Silva had a rough inning in which Ramirez committed an error. Manager Mike Quade responded by saying he was glad someone else was stepping up and saying something besides him.

What?

Immature outbursts and altercations between teammates is what he wants to see? I realize this has become kind of a culture in the Cubs clubhouse, but damn. Congratulations guys. Until the egos stop and the Cubs start playing like a team of talented individuals, I don’t expect any championships.

Career
1. Ted Williams (15879)
2. Carl Yastrzemski (15810)
3. Dwight Evans (10608)
4. Jim Rice (9530)
5. Bobby Doerr (9030)
6. Wade Boggs (8177)
7. Harry Hooper (8063)
8. Dom DiMaggio (6590)
9. Tris Speaker (6541)
10. David Ortiz (6222)
11. Mike Greenwell (5967)
12. Nomar Garciaparra (5940)
13. Manny Ramirez (5872)
14. Jimmie Foxx (5615)
15. Jackie Jenson (5528)
16. Rico Petrocelli (5382)
17. Joe Cronin (5365)
18. Frank Malzone (5158)
19. Reggie Smith (4813)
20. Billy Goodman (4805)
21. Johnny Pesky (4743)
22. Carlton Fisk (4735)
23. Mo Vaughn (4725)
24. Larry Gardner (4622)
25. Jason Varitek (4583)
26. John Valentin (4546)
27. Duffy Lewis (4524)
28. Fred Lynn (4344)
29. Trot Nixon (3966)
30. Buck Freeman (3925)
31. Freddy Parent (3887)
32. George Scott (3827)
33. Jimmy Collins (3796)
34. Rick Burleson (3658)
35. Troy O’Leary (3641)
36. Jim Piersall (3628)
37. Vern Stephens (3503)
38. Hobe Ferris (3490)
39. Ira Flagstead (3486)
40. Jim Tabor (3448)
41. Kevin Youkilis (3383)
42. Phil Todt (3372)
43. Heinie Wagner (3333)
44. Ellis Burks (3313)
45. Tony Conigliaro (3267)
46. Johnny Damon (3179)
47. Marty Barrett (3178)
48. Chick Stahl (3137)
49. Doc Cramer (3065)
50. Pete Runnels (3036)
51. Everett Scott
52. Sammy White
53. Dustin Pedroia
54. Billy Werber
55. Jody Reed
56. Roy Johnson
57. Rich Gedman
58. Mike Lowell
59. Dick Gernert
60. Jerry Remy
61. Gary Geiger
62. Rick Miller
63. Bill Buckner
64. Rick Ferrell
65. Lou Finney
66. Bill Regan
67. Mike Andrews
68. J.D. Drew
69. Jake Stahl
70. Don Buddin
71. Joe Harris
72. Butch Hobson
73. Tony Armas
74. Jack Rothrock
75. Eddie Bressoud
76. Stuffy McInnis
77. Tim Naehring
78. Brian Daubach
79. Jacoby Ellsbury
80. Babe Ruth
81. Jose Offerman
82. Clyde Engle
83. Mike Stanley
84. Pete Fox
85. Bill Mueller
86. Bill Carrigan
87. Earl Webb
88. Mike Menosky
89. Joe Foy
90. Kevin Millar
91. Tom Brunansky
92. Lou Criger
93. Birdie Tebbetts
94. Reggie Jefferson
95. Shano Collins
96. Felix Mantilla
97. Coco Crisp
98. Bob Johnson
99. Cecil Cooper
100. Ted Lepcio

Honorable Mentions: Lou Clinton, Scott Hatteberg, Darren Lewis, Walt Dropo, Dick Stuart, Scott Cooper, Jeff Frye, Shea Hillenbrand, Luis Aparicio, Bernie Carbo, Mike Easler, Carl Everett, Vic Wertz, Jose Canseco

Active Red Sox Nearing the Top 100: Marco Scutaro (137), Jed Lowrie (145)

By Value Per At-Bat (Min. 200 AB)
1. Ted Williams
2. Jimmie Foxx
3. Tris Speaker
4. Babe Ruth
5. Nomar Garciaparra
6. Manny Ramirez
7. David Ortiz
8. Jackie Jenson
9. Fred Lynn
10. Billy Werber
11. Jose Canseco
12. Joe Harris
13. Joe Cronin
14. Vern Stephens
15. Earl Webb
16. Adrian Beltre
17. Jacoby Ellsbury
18. Roy Johnson
19. Dustin Pedroia
20. Carl Yastrzemski
21. Bob Johnson
22. Wade Boggs
23. Mickey Vernon
24. Jason Bay
25. Mike Greenwell
26. Harry Hooper
27. Johnny Damon
28. Jimmy Collins
29. Buck Freeman
30. Reggie Smith
31. Bobby Doerr
32. Jake Stahl
33. Victor Martinez
34. George Kell
35. Felix Mantilla
36. Rick Ferrell
37. Mo Vaughn
38. Ken Harrelson
39. Carlton Fisk
40. John Valentin
41. Kevin Youkilis
42. Dwight Evans
43. Trot Nixon
44. Mike Stanley
45. Carney Lansford
46. Carl Everett
47. J.D. Drew
48. Orlando Cabrera
49. Ira Flagstead
50. Bill Mueller
51. Larry Gardner
52. Pete Runnels
53. Walt Dropo
54. Ellis Burks
55. Dom DiMaggio
56. Johnny Pesky
57. Jim Rice
58. Nick Esasky
59. Mike Lowell
60. Gary Geiger
61. Bernie Carbo
62. Lou Finney
63. Jim Tabor
64. Otis Nixon
65. Tony Conigliaro
66. Billy Goodman
67. Todd Walker
68. Dick Gernert
69. Jim Piersall
70. Bill Buckner
71. Coco Crisp
72. Vic Wertz
73. Troy O’Leary
74. Clyde Engle
75. Phil Todt
76. Duffy Lewis
77. Chick Stahl
78. Dick Stuart
79. Jeff Frye
80. Kevin Millar
81. Joe Foy
82. Mike Menosky
83. Don Baylor
84. Birdie Tebbetts
85. Luis Alicea
86. Reggie Jefferson
87. Brian Daubach
88. Heinie Wagner
89. Cecil Cooper
90. Scott Hatteberg
91. Freddy Parent
92. Billy Conigliaro
93. Orlando Cepeda
94. Rico Petrocelli
95. Jody Reed
96. Pete Fox
97. Jose Offerman
98. Pumpsie Green
99. Doc Cramer
100. Tim Naehring

Honorable Mentions: Jack Rothrock, Scott Cooper, Andre Dawson, Frank Malzone, Dante Bichette, Jed Lowrie, Tom Brunansky, Julio Lugo

Active Red Sox Close to the Top 100: Ryan Kalish (needs 37 more AB, would be ranked 81), Lowrie (106), Jason Varitek (119), Marco Scutaro (121), Darnell Mcdonald (125). I would also expect Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford to end up on this list at some point in the near future.

Value/At-Bat
1. Ted Williams
2. Tris Speaker
3. Babe Ruth
4. Manny Ramirez
5. Jackie Jenson
6. Fred Lynn
7. Jose Canseco
8. Earl Webb
9. Jacoby Ellsbury
10. Roy Johnson
11. Carl Yastrzemski
12. Bob Johnson
13. Jason Bay
14. Mike Greenwell
15. Harry Hooper
16. Johnny Damon
17. Reggie Smith
18. Dwight Evans
19. Trot Nixon
20. Carl Everett
21. J.D. Drew
22. Ira Flagstead
23. Ellis Burks
24. Dom DiMaggio
25. Jim Rice
26. Gary Geiger
27. Bernie Carbo
28. Lou Finney
29. Tony Conigliaro
30. Jim Piersall

More-so than any of the other positional lists, the list of Red Sox outfielders is littered with some of the greatest players to ever play the game. Ted Williams heads up both lists as certainly the greatest Red Sox, and perhaps the greatest hitter to ever play the game. Other Hall of Famers abound, in Carl Yastrzemski, Jim Rice, Tris Speaker, Babe Ruth, and Harry Hooper, and perhaps future ones in Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon.

One surprise for me is Jacoby Ellsbury, with all his stolen bases, who ranks on both lists. Only a few years into his Red Sox career, Ellsbury, if he can maintain his stolen base numbers and batting average, and avoid any further injuries to his ribs, could end up in some pretty elite company after his Red Sox career is done. In addition, not many people should complain about J.D. Drew’s contract with the Red Sox at this point, having been as solid as he has over the course of his Red Sox career.

By Value/At-Bat
1. Nomar Garciaparra
2. Joe Cronin
3. Vern Stephens
4. John Valentin
5. Orlando Cabrera
6. Johnny Pesky
7. Heinie Wagner
8. Freddy Parent
9. Rico Petrocelli
10. Jed Lowrie

The is little doubt that Nomar Garciaparra is the greatest Red Sox shortstop of all time, and my numbers seem to back that up, putting him at the top of both lists. The three men he places above on the career list are Red Sox legends of three different eras in Rico Petrocelli, Johnny Pesky, and Hall of Famer Joe Cronin. John Valentin, the man Nomar shifted over to third base, places very well also.

Surprisingly on the per at-bat list, despite several sub-par campaigns, Jed Lowrie’s 2010 revival was enough to propel him into 10th place. We’ll see if he can wrest the starting job from Marco Scutaro this spring, but he could end up on the career list before long. Orlando Cabrera, who played such a huge role on the 2004 World Series team after the trade that sent Nomar to the Cubs, also manages to make the per at-bat list, but well below the man we traded for him.